I have advised many campaigns over the years. The number one problem area I see in most campaigns is the improper calculation or the complete failure to calculate out what I call the “magic number”.
The magic number is the estimated number of votes a campaign needs to obtain to win the race. Sounds simple and in truth, it is not complex, but so many campaigns fail to take the time to estimate voter turnout and the subsequent estimated number they need to win. Without a magic number, a campaign can not anchor the two things they need the most in the campaign and are guaranteed to run out of – time and money.
Calculation of the magic number is part science and part art – it really is just using common sense. You start by looking at the public record voter abstracts of the previous races for the office for which you are seeking. If you are seeking a four-year term, I suggest going back only two election cycles. Anything more than that and population growth alone will mess up your estimates. You should also look at voter registration over that same time period.
For instance, if running for Lt. Governor, you would look at the total amount of votes cast in the last two Lt. Governor races. Over that same eight-year period, you would look at what the voter registration numbers were immediately prior to the early voting period in each election. Average out what registration was over those eight years and will be able to estimate what voter registration will be looking forward to the next start of early voting for the race you are seeking. Bump the voter registration numbers against actual turn out in those past races and you will be able to estimate what turnout will be at the projected estimated level of voter registration you anticipate.
Once you have the estimated turnout, figure out what 30% plus one voter is for the primary and 50% plus one voter for the general. Note: In NC, in a primary field of three or more candidates, if any one candidate gets more than 30% plus one voter and is in the lead, there will be no run-off election.
A campaign must calculate the magic number or they are flying blind in their campaign as all of their time and money is floating on the open market with no anchoring of strategy behind it. This is a death sentence for a campaign.
Calculating the magic number is the first step in a three-part process in which every campaign must engage.
Step two is called “the path of least resistance,” and step three is called the “cadence system.”
In a later post(s), I will cover these next two steps.